Market Focus Analysis:
Pulse Focus 1: According to Reuters, Pakistan’s military said on Tuesday that Chief of Army Staff Asim Munir held “productive” talks with Iranian officials during his visit to Tehran, making “significant progress” on issues including preventing further escalation of conflict, restarting negotiations, and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Focus Interpretation: We previously assessed the upper limit of the latest U.S.-Iran tensions. The intensification of economic sanctions likely signals a cooling off of military actions. Now, new negotiation developments are being relayed through third parties. Crude oil prices have stalled in the 85–90 range, aligning well with our assessment of Trump’s price-sensitive zones.
Asset Reminder: Overnight, U.S. crude oil dropped from around 85 to 80, briefly supported by news of eased geopolitical tensions. With Trump facing pressure ahead of the midterm elections, stock markets remaining volatile, and long-term U.S. Treasury yields under heavy pressure, there is limited capacity to further escalate Middle East tensions. Prices are likely to remain range-bound with a downward bias in the short term.
Plugin Case Examples
Gold: After reaching the yellow zone indicated by our plugin yesterday, gold completed a liquidity sweep and rebounded sharply above 4670. Today, we will continue monitoring for a secondary bounce signal following a retest of the demand zone left earlier in the day. PCE data may confirm continued inflation easing; if favorable bullish signals emerge before the release, a trade could be considered.
(Gold 15-minute chart)
Nasdaq: After breaking above 29,205 overnight, prices retraced to the blue zone and produced two clear rebound waves. A bottoming pattern is forming near 29,200. Today, we’ll monitor the strength of support as confirmed by a retest, which, combined with PCE data, could lead to a recovery toward 29,500.
(Nasdaq 15-minute chart)
Crude Oil: Yesterday’s consecutive decline was primarily due to reports that the U.S. and Iran are continuing negotiations via a third party. After testing the 85–90 range, prices may gradually retreat again toward the 70–75 zone.
(Crude Oil 15-minute chart)
Key Economic Data and Events Today:
20:30 U.S. July PCE (Core) YoY
