Market Focus Analysis:
Pulse Focus 1: In response to continuous attacks by the United States, Iran retaliated against U.S. military targets in neighboring countries and reannounced the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Focus Analysis: Geopolitical tensions are escalating, but the current situation is unlikely to reach the same level as in April and May. Oil prices opened higher by about 3–4%, significantly lower than the 8–10% gap seen during similar circumstances in April and May. This indicates that the market’s pricing of current uncertainty remains lower than it was back then.
Asset reminder: WTI prices gapped higher from around 71.50 to near 74.50. Watch for signals of a price pullback after liquidity is cleared around the 75 level, and consider entering once. Initial target is to see the gap closed.
Pulse Focus 2: After its highly anticipated debut on the U.S. stock market, memory chip maker SK Hynix saw its shares plunge 10% on Monday in South Korea, dragging down the country’s benchmark composite index by 10%. The entire Asia-Pacific tech sector came under pressure.
Focus Insight: The recent rise in South Korean tech stocks has been driven by significant leveraged trading, making them more vulnerable to sharp market fluctuations. The decline in the South Korean market has weighed on tech stocks across the Asia-Pacific region, while the Nasdaq has shown relatively greater resilience.
Asset reminder: Nasdaq 100—watch for rebound signals after liquidity sweeps around 29,500, with targets at 29,800 and 30,000. In the short term, consider a long Nasdaq, short KOSPI, or a hedging strategy involving the Nikkei.
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Gold: Last Friday, we perfectly captured the rebound following a sharp price drop by entering at the green buy limit zone, achieving a nearly 2:1 risk-reward ratio. Today, we focus on the early morning gap fill; if it closes, we’ll participate in a pullback buy; if not, we’ll look for a bounce after liquidity sweeps lower. For detailed levels, please consult the plugin.
(Gold 15-minute chart)
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Nasdaq: On Friday, the buy stop we triggered via our plugin showed some noise, but the price still hit a new high of 29,860. Currently, due to the impact of Iran’s blockade on the strait, prices have retreated back below 29,500. For today, we are monitoring for rebound signals following the cleanup in the yellow zone. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(NASDAQ 15-minute chart)
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Crude oil: We remain skeptical about the sustainability of the early morning price surge. Closely monitor the pullback following the liquidity sweep above 75 during the day. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(Crude Oil 15-minute Chart)
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Today’s key financial data and events to watch:
17:25 Federal Reserve Governor Bowman speaks on “financial regulatory modernization”
