Market Focus Analysis:
Pulse Focus 1: Trump: The duplicity of Iran’s leadership is incredible; they requested a meeting, negotiations have begun, and more talks are scheduled in the coming days, to be conducted in two phases. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei: (on talks with the U.S.) There are no plans “in the near future” to receive a U.S. delegation or to send an Iranian delegation.
Focus Analysis: With long-term U.S. Treasury yields rising sharply, Trump’s hardline stance will clearly face constraints. Although the U.S. and Iran have not publicly agreed on new talks, we can at least conclude that both sides are still engaging in discussions. Therefore, it is only a matter of time before formal negotiations resume.
Asset update: After dropping overnight to a low of 78.69, U.S. crude oil has rebounded and is now approaching the gap left by Monday’s opening drop. Key resistance lies in the 82–83 range; if prices face resistance and pull back, it could trigger another round of downside testing. Initial targets are 78 and then 75.
Pulse Focus 2: The U.S. July ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.6, up from the previous reading of 53.3 and above the expected 54. The employment component increased to 52.8, while the price index slightly declined to 71.1.
Focus Insight: The rebound in the manufacturing ISM data has provided a positive boost to U.S. equities, with employment recovering while prices decline. At present, U.S. stocks appear to be the most suitable asset for a rally, benefiting from falling prices and gaining momentum regardless of whether employment data improves or not.
Asset Reminder: We previously highlighted the potential for the Nasdaq 100 index to rebound this week toward 29,000 and 29,500, with support at 28,000/28,200. After briefly touching 28,194 overnight, prices sharply reversed and surged above 28,900. The market is now moving in line with our expectations.
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Gold: Gold prices remain in a tight, consolidating range. Although they briefly dipped below the session low overnight, they quickly rebounded. Resistance lies at 4080; if prices can hold above 4050 during the day, there may be an opportunity to attempt a momentum breakout. If prices retrace to 4010/20, focus should first be on potential rebound signals. For detailed levels, please consult the plugin.
(Gold 15-minute chart)
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Nasdaq: The price continues its V-shaped rebound following the recent low sweep of liquidity. After breaking below the yellow zone we highlighted yesterday, it surged sharply by over 700 points. If there is momentum-driven upward movement during the day, consider participating once. Meanwhile, keep monitoring the near-term liquidity sweeps. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(NASDAQ 15-minute chart)
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Crude oil: Continue monitoring liquidity in the upper yellow zone, waiting for a new breakout signal after touching the upper yellow boundary. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(Crude Oil 15-minute Chart)
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Today’s key financial data and events to watch:
22:00 U.S. June JOLTS Job Vacancies (in thousands)
