Market Focus Analysis:
Pulse Focus 1: In July, the U.S. private sector added only 44,000 jobs after adjusting for government employment, the smallest gain since January this year—below the market’s expected increase of 70,000 and lower than the downwardly revised 95,000 in June.
Focus Insight: With July data still under the influence of the World Cup effect, subsequent figures will only deepen concerns. This could cast a shadow over Friday’s non-farm payroll report. If overall employment data weakens again, expectations for a Fed rate hike will continue to decline.
Asset alert: London gold has broken above and held the 4,200 level, aiming to test 4,300 today. The pace of short covering may accelerate further. For the day, watch for liquidity signals near the 4,250 area; this should be supported by momentum breaking through 4,300. Upside targets are aimed at key liquidity zones at 4,380/4,420.
Pulse Focus 2: Iran’s Foreign Ministry stated that an agreement with Oman on the Strait is nearing completion, which would close the two existing shipping lanes. The new route into the Strait of Hormuz and part of the exit route will pass through Iranian territorial waters. However, this new lane is also temporary and is expected to remain in use for two to four months.
Focus Analysis: Iran is reportedly seeking to charge 5% to 7% of cargo value for vessels transiting the Strait, while Oman is pushing for a 3% fee. The difference between the two sides is not significant, and according to public information, reaching an agreement is merely a matter of time in negotiations, with no fundamental obstacles.
Asset reminder: U.S. crude oil continues to follow the strategy of going long and then shorting, with intraday liquidity zones potentially lowered to the 76.80–77 range. Target levels for pullbacks are 75, 72, and 70.
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Gold: The price has broken above the 4,200 level with minimal pullback, approaching the 4,300 mark. Throughout the day, closely monitor both the momentum of the breakout and potential liquidity-driven reversals. For detailed positioning, please consult the plugin.
(Gold 15-minute chart)
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Nasdaq: Prices approached the 30,000-point level overnight but encountered resistance and pulled back to around 29,500. Today, we will continue monitoring rebound signals following the cleansing of liquidity. For detailed levels, please consult the plugin.
(NASDAQ 15-minute chart)
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Crude oil: We will continue our strategy of scanning for short signals by monitoring liquidity throughout the day. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(Crude Oil 15-minute Chart)
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Today’s key financial data and events to watch:
20:30 U.S. initial jobless claims for last week
