Market Focus Analysis:
Pulse Focus 1: Iran and Oman have largely agreed on a temporary version of the Strait 2.0 deal and its route. However, the U.S. has not yet commented on this development.
Focus Interpretation: U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen stated over the weekend that the most stringent sanctions ever imposed on Iran could be launched as early as this week. This move reflects the Trump administration’s response to the Iran-Oman consensus—indicating that negotiations will continue. Trump’s background as a businessman means he won’t back down when in a favorable position. With ongoing declines in non-farm payrolls and inflation data, he now has greater room to push for better terms in the deal.
Instrument Reminder: Gold is currently consolidating around 4400. The rally since 3950, which approached $500, requires a new consolidation pattern before a directional breakout can occur. A straight upward surge in the near term is unlikely. For today, we recommend monitoring liquidity rebounds at the 4380/4370 zone and watching for subsequent rebound signals.
Pulse Focus 2: U.S. July retail sales dropped unexpectedly by 0.6%, far below both expectations and the previous reading.
Focus Interpretation: With declining data across non-farm payrolls, inflation, and retail sales, the resilience of the U.S. economy appears evident, undermining the narrative of “U.S. exceptionalism.” Expectations for further Fed rate hikes are continuing to fade. This trend supports the Nasdaq in holding above 30,000 points.
Instrument Reminder: For the Nasdaq 100 index, as long as prices hold above 30,000, there is potential for another push toward 30,500 this week.
Plugin Case Examples
Gold: The price rise since 3950 needs to re-establish a technical consolidation pattern. Today’s focus should be on catching rebounds after near-term liquidity pullbacks. However, if prices break above 4410, consider a buy limit on a pullback. For detailed levels, please consult the plugin.
(Gold 15-minute chart)
Nasdaq: The blue buy-stop area highlighted by the plugin last Friday offered nearly a 2:1 risk-reward ratio. Continue monitoring buy-stop signals today; however, keep an eye on potential pullbacks near immediate liquidity zones. For precise levels, please consult the plugin.
(Nasdaq 15-minute chart)
Crude Oil: We maintain a strategy to short following a pullback after a rally. For specific entry levels, please consult the plugin.
(Crude Oil 15-minute chart)
