Although the three major components of the U.S. October nonfarm payrolls report released last Friday all came in stronger than expected, the one-year inflation expectations data fell sharply amid the Democratic sweep of Congress, and gold held above 4050; the Nasdaq 100 also rebounded above 27,000. The U.S. Dollar Index benefited from the nonfarm data, rebounding above 102, while non-U.S. currencies came under pressure and fell.
The U.S. October seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls rose by 165,000, well above the forecast of 65,000, while the previous figure was revised up to 60,000. The unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1%. Average hourly earnings also rose by 3.1% year over year, above the forecast of 2.9%.
Also released last Friday, the U.S. one-year inflation expectations for November fell rapidly from 4.7% to 4.3%.
Asian stock markets rebounded from their steepest decline in 18 months, while crude oil prices fell, further boosting market sentiment. Brent crude fell 0.1% to $98.06 a barrel after CNN reported that U.S. President Trump said he was “highly unlikely” to order further strikes against Iran if progress is made in negotiations with Iran.
Last week, U.S. stocks fell sharply at one point as markets worried that Democrats would tighten regulation of the artificial intelligence industry.
NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang admitted to an affair with a woman identified by a series of reports as a suspected spy, plunging the chip giant into an unprecedented crisis in its 30-year history.
Asian markets are gradually recovering as investors digest the rebound in U.S. tech stocks and the latest developments involving NVIDIA founder Jensen Huang. If traders can see a clearer outlook for data center construction, Huang’s story is more likely to be a short-term fluctuation that should gradually fade.
Plugin Trade Examples
Gold: The nonfarm data did not affect gold’s corrective rally. This morning, price surged $80, jumping from around 4050 to around 4130. Intraday, we will look for a second rebound signal after a sweep of liquidity around 4100; we will also watch whether a move toward 4150 can generate new momentum for a breakout.
(Gold 15-minute chart)
Nasdaq: Price moved from around 26,300 back above 27,000. On Friday, it traded in a range and temporarily held the 27,000 level. Intraday, we do not rule out a sweep of liquidity, so we have placed a yellow signal near 26,700; we will also watch for buy opportunities on pullbacks after a breakout above 27,400.
(Nasdaq 15-minute chart)
Crude: Price is consolidating in a narrowing range between 90 and 92. Intraday, we will focus on the breakout direction of the triangle convergence, with either side possible. Our plugin has set up a sell on a sweep above 94 followed by a pullback, as well as a sell on a pullback after a breakdown below 89.55.
(Crude 15-minute chart)
Key economic data and events to watch today:
17:30 Eurozone November Sentix Investor Confidence Index
21:40 Federal Reserve Governor Bowman speaks.
23:00 U.S. September Wholesale Inventories MoM
23:00 2027 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee speaks.
